Speaking of experts on international affairs, ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI suggests a reason for the mysterious endorsement of Bush by Vladimir Putin. I'd puzzled over this for a couple weeks--what does Putin have to gain from another Bush term? More encirclement by US bases in the easternmost former Soviet states? A catastrophe on his southern borders? Here's Zbig:
In fact, in the Islamic world at large as well as in Europe, Mr. Bush's policy is becoming conflated in the public mind with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's policy in Gaza and the West Bank. Fueled by anti-American resentments, that policy is widely caricatured as a crude reliance on power, semicolonial in its attitude, and driven by prejudice toward the Islamic world. The likely effect is that staying on course under Mr. Bush will remain a largely solitary American adventure.
This global solitude might make a re-elected Bush administration more vulnerable to the temptation to embrace a new anti-Islamic alliance, one reminiscent of the Holy Alliance that emerged after 1815 to prevent revolutionary upheavals in Europe. The notion of a new Holy Alliance is already being promoted by those with a special interest in entangling the United States in a prolonged conflict with Islam. Vladimir Putin's endorsement of Mr. Bush immediately comes to mind; it also attracts some anti-Islamic Indian leaders hoping to prevent Pakistan from dominating Afghanistan; the Likud in Israel is also understandably tempted; even China might play along.
For the United States, however, a new Holy Alliance would mean growing isolation in an increasingly polarized world. That prospect may not faze the extremists in the Bush administration who are committed to an existential struggle against Islam and who would like America to attack Iran, but who otherwise lack any wider strategic conception of what America's role in the world ought to be. It is, however, of concern to moderate Republicans.
Zbig created the international mujahadeen/fascist Islamicist movement as Carter's National Security Adviser. His idea was to give the Soviets their own Vietnam by luring them into Afghanistan and bleeding them dry. Reagan's crew ran with this idea, pumping money and arms and training into the groups that later became Al Qaeda and the Taliban, all the while cynically criticising the Soviets for invading a sovereign country, when that was the desired result all along. So perhaps Putin's endorsement of Bush is along the same lines: his foolhardiness in the Middle East, coupled with reckless spending, might lead to a much-precipitated collapse of the "world's only superpower," again leveling the international playing field. The Soviet Union wasn't the first major world power to be broken in those deserts, and if Bush is re-elected, it might not have been the last.
(I apologize this is so poorly written, but I worked on it for an hour and Blogger ate my post; this is a quick attempt at reconstruction)
2 comments:
Putin's endorsement also reflects his desire to keep an ally who endorses the Chechen war as a "war against terror". Bush has turned a blind eye (whichever of the pair) to the human rights disaster there....
Agreed. The Chinese have much to gain from the same exact "blind eye."
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