Casey's got a good post about Iran over at The Contrarian. As much as I hope for reform and true democratic change for those long-suffering souls in Persia, I wonder if now is a good time for another collapsed state in that region, with Pakistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan in various stages of chaos?
As much as the neocons might not like to believe it, the Iranians have a lot of influence in Iraq at this time, and a big part of the surge's success has been the Mullahs keeping their henchmen and allies in Iraq in check. Obama and HRC need to tread lightly, because the Powers that Be in Iran can make things very hot for our troops in Baghdad if they feel we're squeezing them over the Moussavi injustice. Imagine if US pressure over the elections makes Khamenei decide to unleash al-Sadr against US troops? There would be an unimaginable blood bath.
I'm quite curious how this will all play out, but the idea of a truly democratic Iran is quite exciting. Hopefully if it comes to fruition the US won't overthrow it again.